Toronto Home Sales to Fall in 2018, but Prices Will Go Up

Wednesday Jan 31st, 2018


It seems unlikely that the Toronto real estate market will be able to top 2017’s record home sales this year. But, according to the city’s real estate board, home prices are only going to keep climbing in 2018.

The Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) released its 2018 forecast today, predicting between 85,000 to 95,000 GTA home sales this year, while the average price of a home could sell for anywhere between $800,000 and $850,000.

In 2017, there were 92,394 sales, while the average selling price of a home came in at $822,681.

“Strong local economic conditions, including income growth above the rate of inflation, coupled with an increased immigration target will result in sustained household growth in the GTA, both in 2018 and over the longer term,” reads the report.

The forecast is significantly rosier than what the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is predicting for the national market. Earlier this month, CREA predicted a 5.3 per cent drop in national home sales in 2018.

While the report acknowledges that the new mortgage stress test and recent 25 basis point interest rate hike will affect the market, it maintains that the cooling will be temporary.

“Despite a dip in home sales, [Toronto] market conditions will remain balanced enough to see support for home prices, especially as we move toward the end of 2018,” reads the report.

As prices rise, first-time buyers may be pushed out of previously affordable segments of the market. Many industry watchers are predicting that the Toronto condo market will be particularly hot in 2018.

“While many end users have been looking to the new condominium apartment sector for more affordable homes, some are now starting to be priced out of this segment as well,” writes Altus Group executive VP of research consulting services Patricia Arsenault, in a statement.

It’s likely to be a more expensive year for renters as well, as swelling demand and limited supply push rent prices up.

“Looking forward, we continue to have concerns that rent control legislation announced in conjunction with the Ontario Fair Housing Plan will preclude additional rental supply coming on stream, both in the purpose built and investor-held condominium apartment segments,” writes TREB director of market analysis Jason Mercer, in a statement.

Source:, Sarah Niedoba Jan 30, 2018

Post a comment